Analitika Forex Rupiah

Goldman Sachs Goldman Sachs: -,. Aufrechtzuerhalten. , INR, TRY, ZAR IDR. Aufrechtzuerhalten. Aufrechtzuerhalten. Aufrechtzuerhalten. ,. Aufrechtzuerhalten. Aufrechtzuerhalten. ,. Aufrechtzuerhalten. InstaForex. Aufrechtzuerhalten. , Analitika-forex. ru. 818. . 0.0 0Date. 5. August 2015. EURUSD, schloss drastisch niedriger am Dienstag in Folge von frischen Kommentaren von den US Feds Lockhart, die darauf hindeuteten, dass die anstehenden US-Wirtschaftsdaten müssten deutlich zu enttäuschen, um die FOMC zu verzögern, eine Verschärfung in September. Der Markt reagierte auf die hawkischen Kommentare mit dem frischen Kauf von US-Dollar, was den Abwärtsdruck auf das EURUSD-Paar beschleunigte. Nun, da die EURUSD durch die Unterstützung gedreht Widerstand Bereich der 1,0920s gebrochen, und die Tatsache, dass der Preis hat es versäumt, ein neues höheres niedriger über die 1.1120.s, sowie, bearish Momentum Oszillator-Analyse zu halten, führt dies zu halten Dass die EURUSD-Preise weiterhin innerhalb des mehrwöchigen Abwärtskurses zu meinem Zielgebiet in der Nähe der 1,0750s in den kommenden Tagen weiter sinken werden. Da der Zinsfuß zwischen dem USD und dem GBP gegen die EUR-Zinserhöhungen und die Erwartung, dass die USA und die Vereinigten Staaten anfangen werden, die Zinsen zu erhöhen, das Kaufinteresse in den USA und dem britischen Pfund kurzfristig unterstützen werden. Händler sollten auch Kenntnis von den jüngsten hawkish Kommentare aus der BoE und die Fed-Vorstandsmitglieder, die Fallenlassen Hinweise auf anstehende Zinserhöhungen wurden. Die AUD machte einen großen Umzug am Dienstag nach besser als erwartete Handels-und Einzelhandelsumsätze Daten, und dann eine Änderung der Sprache in der RBA-Anweisung nach der erwarteten Entscheidung, die Stimmenrate auf 2.0 zu verlassen. Der Board sagte in seiner Erklärung, dass der australische Dollar an den deutlichen Rückgang der wichtigsten Rohstoffpreise anzupassen. Der AUDUSD sammelte fast 165 Pips auf der Aussage. Währungspaare, gruppierte Performance (Änderung) Die neuen Währungsumrechnungskurse zeigen die prozentuale Veränderung gegenüber früheren Tagen nahe dem aktuellen Zeitpunkt gegenüber den anderen Hauptwährungen. Der GBP ist höher Handel gegen die Majors als die neuesten PMI-Daten weiterhin solide Wachstum zeigen. Der AUD ist nach dem gestrigen starken Vormarsch niedriger. Wesentliche tägliche Unterstützung und Widerstandswerte für diese Paare sind: Hauptmakroereignisse heute EUR Dienstleistungen PMI: Die Dienstleistungen, die gelesen wurden, wurden zu 53.9 von 53.8 und vom zusammengesetzten zu 53.9 von 53.7 revidiert. Insgesamt weist die Wirtschaft der Eurozone bislang eine Resilienz auf und Daten stehen im Einklang mit der Einschätzung der EZB, dass sich die Wirtschaftstätigkeit weiter ausbreitet. USD ISM Non-Manufacturing: Juli Dienstleistungssektor Produzent Stimmung ist auf spätere heute und sollte zeigen, eine 56,0 (Median 56,2) Überschrift für den Monat, fest von Juni. Andere Maßnahmen des Produzentengefühls für den Monat sind gemischt worden, aber sollten den ISM-justierten Durchschnitt für Juli erlauben, die Zunahme bis 53 zu bewahren, die wir im Juni sahen. Bitte beachten Sie, dass die Zeiten auf der Grundlage der lokalen Zeitzone angezeigt werden und vom Zeitpunkt des Schreibens dieses Berichts abhängen. John Knobel Senior Währung Strategist HotForex Disclaimer: Dieses Material wird als allgemeine Marketing-Kommunikation nur zu Informationszwecken zur Verfügung gestellt und stellt keine unabhängige Investitionsforschung. Nichts in dieser Mitteilung enthält oder sollte davon ausgegangen werden, dass eine Anlageberatung oder eine Anlageempfehlung oder eine Aufforderung zum Kauf oder Verkauf eines Finanzinstruments vorliegt. Sämtliche Informationen stammen aus seriösen Quellen und alle Informationen, die einen Hinweis auf vergangene Wertentwicklung enthalten, sind keine Garantie oder ein zuverlässiger Indikator für die zukünftige Wertentwicklung. Die Nutzer erkennen an, dass jede Investition in FX - und CFD-Produkte durch eine gewisse Unsicherheit gekennzeichnet ist und dass jede Investition dieser Art ein hohes Risiko umfasst, für das die Nutzer allein verantwortlich und haftbar sind. Wir haften nicht für Verluste, die aufgrund von Investitionen entstehen, die auf der Grundlage der in dieser Mitteilung enthaltenen Informationen getätigt wurden. Diese Kommunikation darf ohne unsere vorherige schriftliche Zustimmung nicht vervielfältigt oder weitergegeben werden. NSerega 14.09.2015 14:46. Datum. 6. August 2015. WÄHRUNGSFÄLLE vom 5. August 2015. EURUSD hat eine kurzfristige Unterstützung Ebene in der Nähe der 1,0850s und Widerstand Ebenen um 1,0990s 1.1020s. Der kurzfristige Trend ist jetzt negativ, und der Handel im Einklang mit den EZBs dovish Position, um die Versorgung von EUR auf dem Markt zu erhöhen. Kurzfristige EURUSD-Händler können schauen, um wieder in Stärke zu verkaufen, wenn die Preise über die 1,0990s 1.1020s Widerstandswerte hinausgehen, idealerweise zwischen den 1.10s 1.1050s für ein 1.0750s Preisziel. Weitere Negativität auf dem EUR stammt aus dem deutlich schwächeren als erwarteten Einzelhandelsumsatz der Eurozone, der um 0,6 mm sank und den Euro unter Druck setzte, wodurch eine Aufwärtsrevision der endgültigen Eurozone-Dienstleistungen und der zusammengesetzten PMI-Umfrage für den Juli ausgeglichen wurde. Die Tatsache, dass sowohl die USA als auch die USA versuchen, ihre Zinsen zu erhöhen, geben den Händlern genug Gründe, sowohl den US-Dollar als auch das britische Pfund zu unterstützen. Am Mittwoch verfehlte der US-ADP-Beschäftigungsbericht die Erwartungen jedoch, die Juli-Dienstleistungen ISM verzeichneten ein 10-Jahreshoch. Der EURUSD sammelte sich nach den Beschäftigungsdaten auf Session-Hochs um 1,0930 und fiel dann nach dem ISM-Ergebnis auf Session-Tiefs bei 1,0850. Währungspaare, gruppierte Performance (Änderung) Die neuen Währungsumrechnungskurse zeigen die prozentuale Veränderung gegenüber früheren Tagen nahe dem aktuellen Zeitpunkt gegenüber den anderen Hauptwährungen. Die AUD ist niedriger Handel gegen die Majors als Rohstoffpreise wurden geschwächt. CFTC-Daten berichten auch, dass net spekulativen Short-Positionen für die AUD erhöht haben. Der USD, EUR, GBP und JPY sind alle Handel gemischt, da Händler auf GBP Daten warten. Wesentliche tägliche Unterstützung und Widerstandswerte für diese Paare sind: Hauptmakroereignisse heute GBP BoE Zinsentscheidung: Die Zentralbank wird weitgehend erwartet, dass die Repo Rate bei 25 bp zu verlassen. Heute ist die Eröffnungs-BoE Super Donnerstag, die die sofortige Veröffentlichung der MPC-Minuten und die neuesten Quartalsbericht Inflation Bericht enthalten wird. Gouverneur Carney wird auch eine einstündige Pressekonferenz führen. Die Minuten werden wahrscheinlich zeigen, eine hawkish Verschiebung an der BoE, mit MPC Mitglieder Weale und McCafferty gesehen Wiederaufnahme ihrer Stimme zugunsten einer 25 bp Zinserhöhung (mit stimmten dafür zwischen August und Dezember letzten Jahres), obwohl immer noch von 7 bis überstimmt werden 2. Carney wird wahrscheinlich behaupten, dass der nächste Schritt eine Wanderung sein wird, aber dennoch eine relativ ausgeglichene Sicht im Einklang mit den Markterwartungen für eine Verschärfung im Februar nächsten Jahres zu starten. Die BoE dürfte auch kurzfristige Inflationsprognosen beeinträchtigen, wenn die Handelsgewinne mit Sterling gewichtet werden, der jüngste Rückgang der Ölpreise und die Anzeichen dafür, dass sich die Produktivität verbessert, aber gleichzeitig das Risiko für das Aufwärtsrisiko weiter senken wird. Bitte beachten Sie, dass die Zeiten auf der Grundlage der lokalen Zeitzone angezeigt werden und vom Zeitpunkt des Schreibens dieses Berichts abhängen. John Knobel Senior Währung Strategist HotForex Disclaimer: Dieses Material wird als allgemeine Marketing-Kommunikation nur zu Informationszwecken zur Verfügung gestellt und stellt keine unabhängige Investitionsforschung. Nichts in dieser Mitteilung enthält oder sollte davon ausgegangen werden, dass eine Anlageberatung oder eine Anlageempfehlung oder eine Aufforderung zum Kauf oder Verkauf eines Finanzinstruments vorliegt. Sämtliche Informationen stammen aus seriösen Quellen und alle Informationen, die einen Hinweis auf vergangene Wertentwicklung enthalten, sind keine Garantie oder ein zuverlässiger Indikator für die zukünftige Wertentwicklung. Die Nutzer erkennen an, dass jede Investition in FX - und CFD-Produkte durch eine gewisse Unsicherheit gekennzeichnet ist und dass jede Investition dieser Art ein hohes Risiko umfasst, für das die Nutzer allein verantwortlich und haftbar sind. Wir haften nicht für Verluste, die aufgrund von Investitionen entstehen, die auf der Grundlage der in dieser Mitteilung enthaltenen Informationen getätigt wurden. Diese Kommunikation darf ohne unsere vorherige schriftliche Zustimmung nicht vervielfältigt oder weitergegeben werden. NSerega 14.09.2015 14:46. Datum. 7. August 2015. WÄHRUNGSFÄLLE vom 7. August 2015. EURUSD Preis weiterhin Vertrag und Handel innerhalb einer engen Drei-Tages-Bereich vor der heutigen US-Nonfarm Lohn-und Gehaltsabrechnung wirtschaftlichen Daten freizugeben. Die Bollinger-Band EURUSD Trendanalyse auf der Tages-Chart zeigt, dass sich die Volatilität verengt, was typisch vor der Veröffentlichung eines wichtigen Wirtschaftsberichts ist. Der Kurs über die letzten drei Handelssitzungen blieb unter dem 20-Perioden-einfachen gleitenden Durchschnitt, jedoch wird ein zinsbullisches Kreuz im Stochastischen Momentum-Oszillator-Indikator beobachtet. Die Tatsache, dass der Kurs weiterhin gut in dem mehrwöchigen Abwärtsbewegungskanal enthalten ist, und die bullische Querbeobachtung, die unterhalb des Stochastik-20-Niveaus angestiegen ist, zeigt kurzfristig überverkaufte Marktbedingungen an. Die Bank of Englands erste Super Donnerstag schickte Sterling nach unten scharf die BoE linken Geldpolitik unverändert. Die BoE bereitet sich langsam auf die erste Zinserhöhung vor, aber sie sind nicht in Eile zu bewegen. Die GBPUSD schloss scharf nach unten für den Tag unten um 170 Pips von den Tagen hoch im Zuge der Tage schwere GBP Wirtschaftskalender. Der USD stützte sich während der N. Y.-Handel am Donnerstag nach anständigen wöchentlichen arbeitslosen Forderungen gab der USD einige frühe Unterstützung. Das reale US-BIP wuchs im zweiten Quartal um 2,3 Prozent, entsprechend der Vorausschätzung des US-Büros für Wirtschaftsanalyse. Die asiatischen Aktienmärkte waren in der Nacht-Handel, mit China und Japan aufgemischt. Die Bank von Japan verließ Politik unverändert, wie allgemein erwartet. Währungspaare, gruppierte Performance (Änderung) Die neuen Währungsumrechnungskurse zeigen die prozentuale Veränderung gegenüber früheren Tagen nahe dem aktuellen Zeitpunkt gegenüber den anderen Hauptwährungen. Der GBP handelt niedriger gegen die Majors, nachdem die BoE hervorgehoben hat, dass seine in keinem Ansturm, Rate zu erhöhen. Die AUD ist höher Handel als die BoA bleibt angespannt über die heimische Wirtschaft, und die Nachfrage nach australischen Rohstoffen scheint zu verbessern. Signifikante tägliche Unterstützung und Widerstandswerte für diese Paare sind: Hauptmakro-Ereignisse heute USD Nonfarm Lohn-und Gehaltslisten: Juli Nonfarm Lohn-und Gehaltslisten werden voraussichtlich um 215k zu erhöhen, mit einem 205k privaten Gehaltsabrechnung gewinnen. Das Marktrisiko, wenn Gehälter nach unten, könnte das Timing der Zinserhöhungen auswirken. Wenn nach oben, sollte einige Schwanz Wind. USD Arbeitslosenquote: Die Arbeitslosenquote dürfte ab Juni konstant bei 5,3 liegen. Die Arbeitszeit wird voraussichtlich bei 34,5 für einen fünften Monat halten. CAD Nettoveränderung in der Beschäftigung: Beschäftigung wird erwartet, um 10.0k im Juli nach der 6.4k Drop im Juni zu steigen. Bitte beachten Sie, dass die Zeiten auf der Grundlage der lokalen Zeitzone angezeigt werden und vom Zeitpunkt des Schreibens dieses Berichts abhängen. John Knobel Senior Währung Strategist HotForex Disclaimer: Dieses Material wird als allgemeine Marketing-Kommunikation nur zu Informationszwecken zur Verfügung gestellt und stellt keine unabhängige Investitionsforschung. Nichts in dieser Mitteilung enthält oder sollte davon ausgegangen werden, dass eine Anlageberatung oder eine Anlageempfehlung oder eine Aufforderung zum Kauf oder Verkauf eines Finanzinstruments vorliegt. Sämtliche Informationen stammen aus seriösen Quellen und alle Informationen, die einen Hinweis auf vergangene Wertentwicklung enthalten, sind keine Garantie oder ein zuverlässiger Indikator für die zukünftige Wertentwicklung. Die Nutzer erkennen an, dass jede Investition in FX - und CFD-Produkte durch eine gewisse Unsicherheit gekennzeichnet ist und dass jede Investition dieser Art ein hohes Risiko umfasst, für das die Nutzer allein verantwortlich und haftbar sind. Wir haften nicht für Verluste, die aufgrund von Investitionen entstehen, die auf der Grundlage der in dieser Mitteilung enthaltenen Informationen getätigt wurden. Diese Kommunikation darf ohne unsere vorherige schriftliche Zustimmung nicht vervielfältigt oder weitergegeben werden. NSerega 14.09.2015 14:47. Datum. 10. August 2015. WÄHRUNGSMÖGLER VOM 10. AUGUST 2015. EURUSD-Kurs erholt sich weiterhin von überverkauften Marktbedingungen, da der USD am Freitag niedriger notierte, obwohl der Arbeitsplatzbericht weitgehend den Erwartungen entsprach. Die Chancen für eine US-Fed September Rate Wanderung scheinen eher mit dem Non-Farm Gehaltsliste Bericht auf starke US-Job-Wachstum. Der EUR kaum im frühen Montag-Handel gegen den Dollar geändert, ist aber gegen die meisten anderen Währungen. Der europäische Kalender ist heute ziemlich ruhig, mit französischem Geschäftsvertrauen von der Bank von Frankreich und Sentix Investor Vertrauen für die Eurozone. Technisch hält die EURUSD eine mehrwöchige Folge von unteren Tops und Böden. Wir konnten einen dritten Versuch für einen Aufwärtsangriff auf die 1.1120er Jahre als Preissprung von den 1.0850er Jahren vor der Wiederaufnahme des mehrwöchigen Preisrückgangs vom 18. Juni von 1.1436 sehen, bevor wir sehen, dass die Preise nach unten hin schleifen Mein mittelfristiges Preiszielgebiet in der Nähe der 1,0750s. Deutsche Daten schwächen, mit der industriellen Produktion unerwartet eintauchen 1,4 mm im Juni-Daten (die mittlere Prognose war für einen Anstieg von 0,9 gewesen). Die unerwartete scharfe Kontraktion in der deutschen Juni-Produktion wird einen Schatten über die Schätzungen des BIP von Q2 werfen. Der EUR scheint jedoch zu ignorieren, da EUR-Käufer auf kurzfristig überverkauften Bedingungen auftauchen. Die frühen Wochenmärkte in Asien konsolidieren nach Freitag die US-Jobs berichten über die Marktvolatilität. Spekulationen, dass Peking beschleunigt Fusionen von staatseigenen Unternehmen geholfen Unterstützung Aktien, während Japans Nikkei wurde durch die Gewinn-Berichte getrieben, und der australische Markt wurde durch einen starken Rebound in Bankaktien unterstützt. Freitag Schlagzeile US-Bericht gedruckt ein 215k Juli Gehaltsliste Anstieg mit einem 0,2 stündlichen Gewinn Gewinn genau abgestimmt Schätzungen, aber kleine Gewinne von 101.000 für zivile Arbeitsplätze und 69k für die Erwerbsbevölkerung nach Juni Rückgänge waren eine Enttäuschung. Es gab einen Rückgang der Arbeitslosenquote auf 5,26 Zyklus-niedrig von 5,28, obwohl die Erwerbsbeteiligungsquote bei einem 38-jährigen Tiefstand von 62,6 blieb. Der FOMC befindet sich am Rande seiner ersten Zinserhöhung seit Juni 2006. Allerdings ist eine Verschärfung noch nicht garantiert und es bleiben einige Risiken, die die Fed sidelined halten könnten. Währungspaare, gruppierte Performance (Änderung) Die neuen Währungsumrechnungskurse zeigen die prozentuale Veränderung gegenüber dem aktuellen Wechselkurs von 5 Tagen gegenüber den anderen Hauptwährungen. Die AUD ist der Handel höher als die RBA spricht über eine stärkere Wirtschaft und Short-Verkäufer gequetscht werden. Die Nachfrage nach australischen Rohstoffen scheint sich ebenfalls zu verbessern. Der GBP ist niedriger Handel nach Super-Donnerstag stellte sich als eine Enttäuschung und die BoE kann eine Zinserhöhung verschieben. Wesentliche tägliche Unterstützung und Widerstandsniveaus für diese Paare sind: Hauptmakroereignisse heute Sentix Investor-Vertrauen: Die Prognose ist für einen 20.2, der von den vorhergehenden 18.5 liest, eine höhere Lesung wird das Vertrauen der Investoren in der europäischen Wirtschaftserholung hervorheben. USD FOMC Mitglied Lockhart Spricht: Weil er im Atlanta Press Club spricht und Fragen des Publikums beantwortet. Bitte beachten Sie, dass die Zeiten auf der Grundlage der lokalen Zeitzone angezeigt werden und vom Zeitpunkt des Schreibens dieses Berichts abhängen. John Knobel Senior Währung Strategist HotForex Disclaimer: Dieses Material wird als allgemeine Marketing-Kommunikation nur zu Informationszwecken zur Verfügung gestellt und stellt keine unabhängige Investitionsforschung. Nichts in dieser Mitteilung enthält oder sollte davon ausgegangen werden, dass eine Anlageberatung oder eine Anlageempfehlung oder eine Aufforderung zum Kauf oder Verkauf eines Finanzinstruments vorliegt. Sämtliche Informationen stammen aus seriösen Quellen und alle Informationen, die einen Hinweis auf vergangene Wertentwicklung enthalten, sind keine Garantie oder ein zuverlässiger Indikator für die zukünftige Wertentwicklung. Die Nutzer erkennen an, dass jede Investition in FX - und CFD-Produkte durch eine gewisse Unsicherheit gekennzeichnet ist und dass jede Investition dieser Art ein hohes Risiko umfasst, für das die Nutzer allein verantwortlich und haftbar sind. Wir haften nicht für Verluste, die aufgrund von Investitionen entstehen, die auf der Grundlage der in dieser Mitteilung enthaltenen Informationen getätigt wurden. Diese Kommunikation darf ohne unsere vorherige schriftliche Zustimmung nicht vervielfältigt oder weitergegeben werden. NSerega 14.09.2015 14:47. Datum. 11. August 2015. WÄHRUNGSBEWEGUNGEN AM 11. August 2015. EURUSD steigt für die letzten vier Handelstage, nachdem es einen höheren Tiefstand bei 1.0848 wöchentlicher Unterstützung geschaffen hat. Dies hat das Paar schlüssig aus dem Bären-Kanal nach einem Breakout am Ende Juli scheiterte gebracht. Dieser erste versäumte Versuch, aber war ein Hauch von Dingen zu kommen und Markt konnte ein höheres Tief am 5. August zu schaffen. Gestern war das erste Mal EURUSD außerhalb des Kanals für einen vollen Handelstag und damit bestätigt, dass die Downside-Dynamik, die im Juli waren nicht diktieren die Marktbewegungen nicht mehr diktiert. Daher erwarte ich, dass diese Woche Preis-Aktion zwischen den wichtigsten wöchentlichen Unterstützung und Widerstand Ebenen bei 1.0848 und 1.1189 gebunden werden. Ich sehe einen Unterstützungsbereich in der täglichen Auflösung zwischen 1.0848 und 1.0934, während der nächste Widerstand Bereich zwischen 1.1114 und 1.1189 und 50 und 61.8 Fibonacci Ebenen mit diesen Ebenen übereinstimmen. Jedoch, bevor EURUSD sich dort oben bewegen kann, muss es sich um einen Widerstand handeln, der von der oberen 2 stdv Bollinger Band und dem 50 Tage gleitenden Durchschnitt (derzeit bei 1.1090) erzeugt wird. Ich erwarte das Gebiet zwischen 1.1061 und 1.1130, um den heutigen Handel auf der Oberseite zu begrenzen und dann nach einem Umzug auf 1.0870 zu suchen. Das deutsche ZEW fiel im August unerwartet mit einem Rückgang der Erwartungen von 29,7 auf 25,0 Punkte. Der aktuelle Stand der Lesung noch verbessert auf 65,7 von 63,9 und die Erwartungen Zahl bleibt weiterhin in positivem Territorium, was darauf hinweist, dass Optimisten weit übertreffen Pessimisten. Dennoch, die Tatsache, dass das Vertrauen der Investoren wieder sank, trotz Anzeichen dafür, dass Griechenland auf dem Weg zu einer dritten Rettung ist, hebt hervor, dass die Besorgnis über die Auswirkungen der FEDs aufhebt und die Aussichten für die chinesische Wirtschaft eine stabilere Situation in der Eurozone überschatten. Die starken Marktbedingungen, die mit einem deutlichen Anstieg der deutschen Auftragseingänge im 2. Quartal einhergehen, deuten darauf hin, dass die Erholung im dritten Quartal auf Kurs bleibt, doch die Sorgen um die längerfristigen Aussichten scheinen auf dem Vormarsch zu sein. Bund Futures erweiterte Gewinne auf die schwache Zahl und den September 10-Jahres-Vertrag ist nun um 44 Zecken auf 154,39. China abgewertet Yuan nach Juli Exporte wir nach 8,3. Die Währungen wurden durch die PBoCs-Abwertung des Yuan beeinträchtigt, wobei die AUD und NZD beide nach dem Umzug über 1 auf den USD verloren, während der Sieg und der Yen in geringerem Ausmaß getroffen wurden. Ein indirektes Gebot für Dollar sah EURUSD tumble zurück zu dem mid-1.09s, nachdem es über 1.1000 nach dem London-Schluss gestern überspielt hatte. Die PBoC senkte die Yuans täglichen Fix auf den US-Dollar um 1,9 bis 6,228, die größte Abwertung seit der Zentralbank sank seine PEG an den Greenback. Der Umzug folgt düster Handel Daten aus China über das Wochenende, und ist anscheinend eine einmalige Initiative, um Onshore-und Offshore-Preise als eine neue Preisgestaltung konvergieren wird zusammen vor der wichtigsten IWF SDR Inklusion Votum verabschiedet in diesem Jahr, nach Diebstahl. AUDUSD tauchte über eine große Zahl beim Bilden einer ein Woche Tief bei 0.7305. USDJPY erhöhte sich auf einen zweitägigen Höhepunkt von 124,89. Europäische Aktien-Futures sind in Richtung Süden, im Tandem mit US-Aktien-Futures nach Chinas verschieben, um seine Währung abwerten, die Sorgen über die Gesundheit der chinesischen Wirtschaft hinzufügen wird, und fordert die Besorgnis, dass die Abwertung wird Exporteure anderswo behindert, wie es künstlich zu fördern Wettbewerbsfähigkeit der chinesischen Hersteller. Dies könnte zu einem weiteren Druck auf andere Zentralbanken führen, ihre eigenen Währungen stärker zu berücksichtigen. Der DAX freute sich auf eine erwartete Verbesserung des ZEW nach gestrigen, robusten Gewinnen. Feds Lockhart ist immer noch bis September Abheben, obwohl warten ein Monat oder zwei wird nicht entscheidend für die Wirtschaft und eine allmähliche Verschärfung Tempo bedeutet etwas weniger häufig als eine Wanderung bei jedem Treffen. Er sieht einige Anzeichen für die Inflationserwärmung, obwohl niedrige globale Rohstoffpreise ein Anliegen sein könnten, wenn sie eine schwache globale Nachfrage signalisieren. Lockhart sieht Fortschritte bei der Inflation wichtig, um das Tempo der Zinserhöhungen nach Abheben festzulegen. Er sieht sofortiges Risiko griechischer Spillover als übergeben, aber jede Vereinbarung muss noch umgesetzt werden. Scheint hes ließ sich einige wackeln Raum auf Abheben auf der Inflationsschwelle, trotz noch immer begünstigt einen September zu bewegen. Währungspaare, gruppierte Performance (Änderung) AUD wurde heute getroffen, da China beschlossen, seine Währung abzuwerten. Der Umzug wurde als Zeichen der Schwäche in der chinesischen Wirtschaft gesehen und als AUD wirklich Trades auf chinesischen Fundamentaldaten wurde es verkauft. Nach dem Niedergang am meisten gegen die sichere Hafen Währung CHF AUD ist nun am meisten gegen den EUR. Allerdings gibt es auch Verluste gegen die meisten anderen Hauptwährungen. Die Nachrichten brachten AUDUSD zu niedrigeren Bollinger Bands in 4h Auflösung, während EURAUD aus einer engen Band brach, die es in den letzten vier Handelstagen gewesen war. GBPAUD reagierte durch Rallying auf einen Widerstand bei wöchentlicher zentrale Kerze niedrig. AUDCAD sank deutlich von einem Widerstand auf den Abwertungnachrichten, während Rohöl etwas Stärke von einer Hauptunterstützung gesehen hat. Wesentliche tägliche Unterstützung und Widerstandsniveaus für diese Paare sind: Hauptmakroveranstaltungen Heute war das August ZEW Investorgefühl auf 31.0 (Median 32.0) von 29.7 im Juli steigend. Jedoch war die Zahl unten vom vorhergehenden und kam innen bei 25. US Großhandel: Juni Großhandelsdaten sind heraus heute und wird erwartet, um eine 0.8 (Median 0.5) Zunahme für Juni mit Vorräten herauf 0.7 zu zeigen. Daten im Einklang mit dieser Prognose würde die IS-Verhältnis stabil auf 1,29 von April. Die Mai-Freigabe hatte Sendungen herauf 0.3 im Mai und Inventare herauf 0.8. US-Produktivität: Das erste Release auf Q2 Produktivität soll heute veröffentlicht werden und sollte eine 2.0 (median 1.5) Schlagzeile, die eine -3.1 Überschrift in Q1 folgt offenbaren. Die Lohnstückkosten liegen bei -0,5 (Median 0,3) nach 6,7 im 1. Quartal. Die Produktivität war sowohl in Q1 als auch im vierten Quartal des Vorjahres negativ. Kanada-Gehäuse-Starts werden erwartet, um zu einem 205.0k Maßeinheit Rate im Juli vom 203.0k Schritt im Juni zu verbessern. Vorhersagerisiko: Die Volkswirtschaften der kanadischen Energieerzeugungsregionen haben sich aus dem Rückgang der Energiepreise gut publiziert. In diesen Märkten erwarten wir eine langsame Aktivität. Allerdings sind Hypothekenzinsen mager, was hat die Aktivität in anderen Regionen und dazu beigetragen, beibehalten Impuls in der Bautätigkeit. Marktrisiko: Die Bank entschied, dass die Bedrohung durch sinkende Ölpreise die Herausforderung für die Wirtschaft von Canadas war, und die Abwärtsrisiken für Wachstum waren genug für eine Versicherungsecke. Ein solcher Schritt scheint das Risiko einer Wohnblase zu erhöhen. Keine Sorge, wie die Bank sagt, dass leichtere Politik wird dazu beitragen, Einkommen nicht tauchen, die wiederum ermöglichen Haushalte, um Schuldendienst. Bitte beachten Sie, dass die Zeiten auf der Grundlage der lokalen Zeitzone angezeigt werden und vom Zeitpunkt des Schreibens dieses Berichts abhängen. Wollen Sie lernen, zu handeln und zu analysieren, die Märkte Join unsere Webinare und erhalten Analysen und Trading-Ideen in Verbindung mit einem besseren Verständnis, wie die Märkte funktionieren. Janne Muta Chief Market Analyst HotForex Haftungsausschluss: Dieses Material wird als allgemeine Marketing-Kommunikation nur zu Informationszwecken zur Verfügung gestellt und stellt keine unabhängige Investitionsforschung dar. Nichts in dieser Mitteilung enthält oder sollte davon ausgegangen werden, dass eine Anlageberatung oder eine Anlageempfehlung oder eine Aufforderung zum Kauf oder Verkauf eines Finanzinstruments vorliegt. Sämtliche Informationen stammen aus seriösen Quellen und alle Informationen, die einen Hinweis auf vergangene Wertentwicklung enthalten, sind keine Garantie oder zuverlässiger Indikator für die zukünftige Wertentwicklung. Die Nutzer erkennen an, dass jede Investition in FX - und CFD-Produkte durch eine gewisse Unsicherheit gekennzeichnet ist und dass jede Investition dieser Art ein hohes Risiko umfasst, für das die Nutzer allein verantwortlich und haftbar sind. Wir haften nicht für Verluste, die aufgrund von Investitionen entstehen, die auf der Grundlage der in dieser Mitteilung enthaltenen Informationen getätigt wurden. Diese Kommunikation darf ohne unsere vorherige schriftliche Zustimmung nicht vervielfältigt oder weitergegeben werden. Datum. 12. August 2015. WÄHRUNGSBEWEGUNGEN AM 12. August 2015. EURUSD sammelte den Widerstand von 1.1090, der in meinem Bericht gestern festgestellt wurde. Das Paar reagierte niedriger, aber dann angezogen Käufer bei einer Intraday-Unterstützung bei 1.1012. Dies führte zu einem fünften aufeinander folgenden Tag mit Preis wieder versucht, den Widerstand Bereich über 1.1090 herauszufordern. EURUSD handelt im oberen Bollinger Bands (1,5 und 2 Stdv) und der Stochastic wird überkauft. Trend in 4h Auflösung wurde stark und schlagen vor, dass dies ein weiterer Tag ohne eine deutliche Korrektur in EURUSD werden, aber der Aufwärtstrend ist in der Tat begrenzt, da der Widerstand Bereich in der Nähe ist. EURUSD ist der Handel in der Nähe von Ebenen, die in der Lage gewesen sind, den Preis tiefer zu senken, daher erwarte ich, dass im heutigen Trading Upside auf 1.1090 1.1130 Bereich begrenzt werden. Die PBoC abgewertet wieder, Verschiebung der Yuan-Referenzrate auf 6.3306 gegenüber dem Dollar, die eine 1,6 Schwächung der chinesischen Währung gegenüber gestern 6.228 (die sich selbst eine 1,9 Abschreibung). Es scheint ein gewisses Maß an Akzeptanz in den Märkten, mit Credit Suisse Ökonomen, zum Beispiel berechnen, dass der Yuan war 5 bis 10 überbewertet gehen in die Abwertungen, fügte hinzu, dass alles andere als eine 10-Schicht in der Währung würde politische Gegenreaktion auslösen. Eingehende chinesische Daten, darunter Produktion, Einzelhandelsumsätze und Anlageinvestitionen, zeigten Schwäche. Deutsche Gesetzgeber nicht bereit, durch griechische Rettungsaktion zu winken. Es gibt Berichte, dass die deutsche Bundeskanzlerin Merkel der Opposition gegen den Plan ausgesetzt ist, die Gesetzgeber vor der nächsten Woche über das dritte griechische Rettungspaket abstimmen zu lassen. Ein Abgeordneter des Finanzministers Schäuble sagte gegenüber dem ARD-Fernsehen, man müsse genau hinschauen und den Bundestag um Zustimmung bitten, wenn das gemeinsame Verständnis darin besteht, dass dies drei Jahre dauern wird. Wenn es eine Verzögerung, es könnte Griechenlands enger Zeitplan und das Rennen um politische Zustimmung zu bekommen, bevor Griechenland stellt eine weitere große EZB-Rückzahlung am 20. August entgleisen. Deutsche Insolvenzen fallen stark, mit der Gesamtzahl unten 6.6 JJ im Jahr auf und ab 10,6 Jahre im Mai allein. Dies ist ein weiteres Zeichen für eine relativ robuste Binnenkonjunktur, aber auch ein Spiegelbild dafür, dass vor allem Kleinunternehmen in Deutschland weniger Finanzierungsengpässe haben als Unternehmen in der Eurozone. Auch das tiefe Zinsumfeld und die robuste Inlandsnachfrage tragen dazu bei. Gestern stiegen die US-Großhandelsverkäufe im Juni um 0,1 und die Vorräte stiegen um 0,9 an. Der Umsatz im dritten Quartal stieg auf 0,2. Mays 0,8 Sprung in Vorräte wurde niedriger auf 0,6 (0,4 April) überarbeitet. Die Bestandsver - kaufsquote stieg auf 1,30 von 1,29 (überarbeitet von 1,29). Die Gewinne in den meisten der nondurable Verkäufe kompensierten leicht breit-gegründete Rückgänge in den Gebrauchsgütern Verkäufen. Die Vorräte wurden durch Autos und Drogen geboostet. Die Daten werden dazu beitragen, Feinabstimmung GDP Schätzungen. Währungspaare, gruppierte Performance (Änderung) Dies ist ein weiterer Tag, an dem die Marktteilnehmer den australischen Dollar aufgrund einer weiteren Währungsabwertung in China verkaufen. AUD ist gegen die Konkurrenten auf der ganzen Linie, während das Geld fließt in CHF. Dies ist ein Zeichen dafür, dass die Märkte über diese Überraschungsbewegungen des PBOCs besorgt sind und das Bedürfnis haben, einen sicheren Hafen zu finden. AUDUSD hat heute die Unterstützung von 0.7237 getestet und hat sich zum Zeitpunkt des Schreibens leicht gesammelt. Der nächste Widerstand liegt jetzt bei 0.7315. EURAUD bewegte sich auf den Widerstand 1.5277 und befindet sich nun in der Nähe zu einem anderen Widerstand bei 1.5332. GBPAUD ist der Handel innerhalb der oberen täglichen Bollinger-Bänder und hat etwas niedriger vom Widerstand reagiert. Signifikante tägliche Unterstützung und Widerstandsniveaus für diese Paare sind: Hauptmakroereignisse heute Hauptmakroereignisse heute BRITISCHE Anpassungskonto-Änderung für Juli wird erwartet, um bei 1.5k zu kommen, das mit vorheriger Abbildung von 7.0k verglichen wird. Eurozone Industrieproduktion: es sollte ein Rückgang der Juni-Produktionszahlen von -0,1 mm (median same0), nach der enttäuschenden deutschen Zahl. Die Daten können zu rückläufig sein, um ein wichtiger Marktbeweger zu sein oder die Gesamtaussichten zu ändern, aber eine schwache Zahl wird die vorherrschende Risikoaversion, besonders nach dem Überraschungseinbruch im ZEW gestern, hinzufügen. US-Finanzministerium: Juli Treasury Daten ist heute und wird erwartet, dass ein 149 Milliarden (Median -129,8 Milliarden) Defizit für den Monat. Dies entspricht einem Überschuss von 51,8 Milliarden im Juni und einem Defizit von 94,6 Milliarden im Juli des vergangenen Jahres. Die Einnahmen werden bei 224 Milliarden erwartet, ein Plus von 4,6 Yy bei einem Aufwand von 374 Milliarden, ein Plus von 20,9 Yy. Bitte beachten Sie, dass die Zeiten auf der Grundlage der lokalen Zeitzone angezeigt werden und vom Zeitpunkt des Schreibens dieses Berichts abhängen. Wollen Sie lernen, zu handeln und zu analysieren, die Märkte Join unsere Webinare und erhalten Analysen und Trading-Ideen in Verbindung mit einem besseren Verständnis, wie die Märkte funktionieren. Janne Muta Chief Market Analyst HotForex Haftungsausschluss: Dieses Material wird als allgemeine Marketing-Kommunikation nur zu Informationszwecken zur Verfügung gestellt und stellt keine unabhängige Investitionsforschung dar. Nichts in dieser Mitteilung enthält oder sollte davon ausgegangen werden, dass eine Anlageberatung oder eine Anlageempfehlung oder eine Aufforderung zum Kauf oder Verkauf eines Finanzinstruments vorliegt. Sämtliche Informationen stammen aus seriösen Quellen und alle Informationen, die einen Hinweis auf vergangene Wertentwicklung enthalten, sind keine Garantie oder ein zuverlässiger Indikator für die zukünftige Wertentwicklung. Die Nutzer erkennen an, dass jede Investition in FX - und CFD-Produkte durch eine gewisse Unsicherheit gekennzeichnet ist und dass jede Investition dieser Art ein hohes Risiko umfasst, für das die Nutzer allein verantwortlich und haftbar sind. Wir haften nicht für Verluste, die aufgrund von Investitionen entstehen, die auf der Grundlage der in dieser Mitteilung enthaltenen Informationen getätigt wurden. Diese Kommunikation darf ohne unsere vorherige schriftliche Zustimmung nicht vervielfältigt oder weitergegeben werden. Datum. 13. August 2015. WÄHRUNGSMÖGLICHKEITEN 13. August 2015. Die Rallye übertraf meine Erwartungen für den Tag, als EURUSD den Widerstand gegen 1.1130 durchbrach. Jedoch ist es noch innerhalb der Strecke, die ich sagte, dass ich erwarten würde, diese Wochenpreishandlung zu enthalten. Ich schlug in meinem Bericht am Dienstag vor, dass EURUSD nicht über 1.1189 Widerstand handeln würde. Es gab einen schnellen Umzug einige 25 Pips höher, aber es wurde schnell von den Verkäufern abgelehnt und das Paar ist derzeit auf 1,1119 Handel. EURUSD bewegt sich nun auf einen Intraday-Supportbereich zwischen 1.1030 und 1.1070. Die nächste Unterstützungsstufe nach dieser Intraday-Unterstützung ist das wöchentliche Hoch bei 1,10996. Dieses wöchentliche Hoch ist relativ nahe an der Stützfläche darüber und fügt daher seine Bedeutung hinzu. Die nächsten täglichen Unterstützungs - und Widerstandswerte liegen bei 1.0934 und 1.1214. Die PBoC abgewertet CNY für einen dritten Tag, aber mit einem sinkenden aggressiven Tempo von 1,1, im Vergleich zu 1,6 gestern und der ersten 1,9 Abwertung von Montag. The central bank held a press conference to explain the devaluation in contrast to the two previous occasions arguing that there was no economic basis for the currency to continue depreciating, and that it would keep it stable. The PBoC had also intervened during its overnight session, when it trimmed losses in the CNY of nearly 2 to just 1. The central bank also said that the way the reference rate for the new session was modified would now incorporate the currencys close from the previous session, as well as demand and supply conditions. All this mollified broader market concerns. Most other Asian currencies managed to rebound, and stock and commodity markets picked up. Final German HICP inflation was confirmed at 0.1 yy, CPI at 0.2 yy, as expected. The breakdown showed seasonal price drops for clothes and shoes over the month, which were compensated by a rise in holiday related prices. The annual rate continues to reflect the impact of lower energy prices, with household energy down 5.7 yy, a further acceleration in the pace of decline, driven by a 22.4 yy drop in prices for heating oil. Headline numbers remain very low, not just in Germany, but deflation risks are now longer a major concern for the central bank, as core inflation starts to rise. US Treasury posted a 149.2 bln budget deficit in July, a 57.7 erosion versus the 94.6 bln shortfall a year ago. Spending surged 21.2 yy, while receipts rose only 5.1 yy. The fiscal year deficit now stands at 465.5 bln, worsening 1.1 yy compared to the 460.5 bln red ink for the same 10-month period of fiscal 2014. Also for the fiscal year to date, receipts are up 8.0 yy, with outlays up 6.9 yy. Were still forecasting a 430 bln deficit for the current fiscal year, which compares to the -483.3 bln for FY2014. September liftoff is far from a done deal thanks to Chinas devaluations and the broad impacts and implications rippling around the globe. For the time being well maintain our call for a 25 bp hike in September. But the Fed funds futures market is now showing only about a 40 chance for action. Odds were closer to 70 after the July jobs report. Factors that have the potential to cause the FOMC to delay are the risks of global economic weakness, the renewed threat of disinflation with the plunge in commodities, potential devaluations of other Asian currencies, and the stronger dollar which could be a net headwind to US growth. Its too soon for Fed officials to start making pronouncements on China, as indicated by Dudley earlier. While data will continue to be the Feds guiding light, policymakers have already shown their sensitivities to global dynamics, and overseas events could take precedence in the September rate decision if the markets become unglued. Currency Movers Charts In todays trading weve seen EUR correcting lower while USD, CAD and GBP have attracted money and moved higher. NZD is a clear loser today even though there has been no major news on the currency. NZD performance against GBP and USD stand out from the others. GBPNZD is moving higher in an ascending triangle that has been formed below a major historical weekly resistance at 2.4146 while NZDUSD moves sideways at a weekly support at 0.6470. AUDNZD reacted higher from a support yesterday and created a pin bar but there has been much momentum today. This price action is also taking place at a weekly pivotal high at 1.1113. Significant daily support and resistance levels for these pairs are: Main Macro Events Today ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts: The minutes of the July policy meeting, are unlikely to bring any surprises, with comments likely to confirm a cautiously optimistic view on the growth outlook with some reservations due to the impact of the Greek crisis and uncertainty about world growth. Deflation risks are no longer a real issue and some council members will have highlighted risks of asset price bubbles, although the prevailing view at the ECB is that this is not a real concern for now and should be addressed at a national level via macro-prudential policies. The main concern at the ECB is the focus on the full implementation of the QE program and a clear message to markets that the prospect of rising rates in the U. S. doesnt mean the ECB is in a hurry to follow. US Retail Sales: July retail sales are out today and should reveal a 0.4 (median 0.6) headline with a 0.4 (median 0.4) ex-autos increase. There are balanced risks to the report which we discussed in Mondays commentary as chain store sales slowed steadily over the course of the month after a strong start but a firm employment report and the 2.1 bounce in auto sales will help lift the report. US Import and Export Prices: July trade price data is due today and we expect import prices to decline by 1.3 (median -1.0) with export prices down 0.4 on the month. The import price index managed to increase in May as the winter and spring plunge in oil prices leveled off but further declines in oil prices during July look poised to once again weigh on the release. Our July forecasts compare to June figures of -0.1 for import prices and -0.2 for export prices. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Janne Muta Chief Market Analyst HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission. Date. 14th August 2015. CURRENCY MOVERS OF 14th August 2015. With money continuing to flow into the USD and the GBP, traders continue to bet if the Fed will move to raise rates before the Bank of England. The EURUSD is set to consolidate after a six straight trading day advance from the 1.0850s with the recent price advance stopping just short of the 1.1220s resistance levels. Technically, I am expecting the EURUSD to dip towards the 1.1080s 1.0980s as buyers may emerge at those levels before any attempt to test towards the 1.1260s. The EUR market continues to re-price, at least in the short term, to reflect the diminished GREXIT concerns. German Q2 GDP expanded 0.4 qq, a slight acceleration from the 0.3 qq in Q1, which brought the working day adjusted annual rate to 1.6, up from 1.1 yy in the previous quarter. French non-farm payrolls raised 0.2 qq in Q2, while wage growth slowed to 0.3 from 0.5. Overall, French unemployment remains high, especially among the under 25s, but this is also due to Frances ongoing structural issues and low growth potential. Greek parliament approves 3rd bailout after an all night debate that showed the strains in Tsipras coalition. The vote paves the way for an agreement by Eurozone finance ministers at the Eurogroup meeting this afternoon. Markets are trading cautiously after a choppy week in the wake of Chinas unexpected devaluation of the yuan, but the move has been generally accepted by the markets. Wall Street also shrugged off the ongoing slide in crude oil below 42 for the time being. Firmer U. S. retail sales data was offset somewhat by negative trade price data and an uptick in jobless claims. Currency Pairs, Grouped Performance ( change) The new Currency Movers Charts show the percentage change from previous days close to the current moment against the other major currencies. The USD is trading lower in cautious trade following a volatile week. The AUD is higher and commodity prices will continue to dictate the level of the AUD, as demand for Australian commodities seems to be improving. Significant daily support and resistance levels for these pairs are: Main Macro Events Today EUR Eurozone Jul HICP: inflation confirmed at 0.2 yy, unchanged from the preliminary reading and the previous month. Prices dropped 0.6 mm, driven mainly by a renewed decline in energy prices, which were down 0.7 mm and fell 5.6 yy. Excluding energy, the annual rate stood at 0.9 yy in July and core inflation was confirmed at 1.0 yy, up from 0.8 yy in June. Even the core rate is considerably below the ECBs 2 limit for price stability, but the pick up confirms that the risk of a real deflationary spiral is very slim. CAD Manufacturing Sales: A swing in aerospace production featured in the May move higher, as activity in the sector rose 22.2 following the 18.0 drop in April. The depreciation in the value of the CAD during June should boost the value of sales and inventories held in U. S. dollars. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. John Knobel Senior Currency Strategist HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission. Date. 17th August 2015. GOLD RALLY HALTED NEAR RESISTANCE. I pointed out in my previous report that the long term picture stays weak and suggests lower prices for gold. However, I noted that in short term we should see 1080 support holding and market testing the 1130 1146 resistance area. If price moves to this resistance area we should monitor price action for potential signs of momentum reversal at levels identified in this report. Market has since moved roughly as expected with the price of gold moving briefly below the 1080 support. This intraday move was quickly rejected and price closed above the support. This was followed by a sideways move and then a rally that almost reached the lower end of my resistance range last week. The long term weekly picture remains bearish with gold trading near previous support areas. The 23.6 Fibonacci level coincides with the 1130.40 low and therefore suggests increased significance of that level. Other resistance levels are approx. at 1142 and 1160. Gold extended a move to the downside and moved outside the bearish regression channel. Then it took its time after forming a pin bar at support and moved sideways. Now gold has rallied into the the upper Bollinger bands near the first significant resistance level at 1130.40. This level also coincides with a price projection based on the triangle width created by the sideways consolidation. Stochastics is somewhat overbought and rolling over indicating momentum to the downside should be followed by the recent failure to penetrate the Bollinger Bands. However, the support is fairly close at 1100 to 1103. This support area is roughly the higher end of the sideways move. Therefore the downside move from the current levels might not be that strong or long lived. Price is moving sideways after breaking below an ascending regression channel. A pivotal high candle low at 1120 limits the upside moves while the nearest 4h support is at 1111.50 coinciding with the lower 4h Bollinger Bands. The upper end of the 1100 to 1103 support area is where 50 period simple moving average is at the time of writing. At the same time Stochastics Oscillator quite correctly suggests that price is trading approx. in the midrange of the recent sideways move. The latest complete 4h bar is a pinbar that indicates lower prices but there has been now follow through. Even though gold is near the lower end of the long term downward trend channel the proximity of previous support levels (now resistance) suggests that it is hard for the buyers to create a strong rally from here. Price of gold has been a lacklustre performer in the past when the US Fed has been raising rates. This time should be no different unless some external event turns on a need for safe haven buying. Daily time frame rally from a triangle formation failed at the Bollinger Bands where it also reached a price projection target. This suggests the initial thrust to the upside is over as the target has been reached. If the support at 1111.50 breaks we should see gold correcting slightly lower to 1100 1103 support area. All in all, the price of gold is in the short term more likely to correct lower than move beyond the 1120 1126.30 resistance. Therefore if price moves into this range of resistance I will be looking for sell signals in the lower time frames. Should this take place my targets for the shorts are at 1110 and 1103. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Janne Muta Chief Market Analyst HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission. Date. 18th August 2015. CURRENCY MOVERS OF 18th August 2015. The dollar continued on a steady-to-firm path during pre-European trade session in Asia, despite weakness in US Treasury yields amid growth worries and talk the FOMC will delay lift-off beyond September. EURUSD ebbed to a six-day low of 1.1051, and USDJPY lifted to the 124.50 area, though the pair remained well within its Monday range. For the last three weeks the Stochastics Oscillator has been giving high quality signals at both ends of its range. This happens when market moves sideways in a well-defined range. I said in my Aug 11th report that I expect this weeks price action to be bound between major weekly support and resistance levels at 1.0848 and 1.1189. The upper end of the range was tested over the next three days but price failed to penetrate the level on a closing basis. Since then the pair has been drifting lower. The key word here is drifting. Price move hasnt been strong and volatile but rather quite gradual. The pair has now reached the support range I mentioned in my Aug 13th report (1.1030 1.1070) and trades at 1.1060 at the time of writing. Therefore, I expect price will find support very close to the current price. The proximity of the 38.2 Fibonacci level at 1.1044 supports the idea. Reaction higher however, could be short lived to as there is resistance in 1.1114 1.1125 range. If this Im right and this resistance holds the support area between 1.08048 and 1.0934 becomes a likely target area for shorts. German Financial Minister Schaeuble calls on lawmakers to back Greek aid package. He sends a strong signal off support for Greeces 3rd bailout package ahead of Wednesdays vote in Germanys lower house of parliament, where Schaueble and Merkel are facing growing dissent from their own party. Schaeuble told public broadcaster ZDF that he sees a dramatic change in the governments readiness to reform and that: I can argue with full conviction, partly because I havent taken this decision lightly myself that the right thing to do is to vote for this. Schaeuble, like Merkel before him, seemed to be trying to play down difference with the IMF over Greeces debt sustainability and stressed that he is sure that the IMF will be involved in the program. US NAHB homebuilder sentiment index rose to 61 in August from 60 in June and is the highest since November 2005. The single family sales index edged up to 66 versus 65 last month (revised from 66). The future sales index was steady at 70 (July revised down from 71). The index of prospective buyer traffic improved 2 points to 45 versus 43 previously, and is the best reading of the year, underpinned by the gains in employment and still low mortgage rates. Currency Movers Charts The AUD is down after the RBA meeting minutes indicated that the bank believes the Fed rate hike will cause further depreciation in the AUD against the USD. NZD gained ground earlier today on the back of news on milk prices going up. According to Reuters there is a growing expectation that milk prices will rise in tonights auction. This commodity being important for the New Zealand economy potential for higher prices has supported the currency today. EURAUD is trading near the lower end of a daily shooting star candle and looks like it might push into the above resistance. AUDCAD is rolling over from a resistance at 0.9670 towards a support at 0.9431. NZD has risen most against the AUD and the AUDNZD pair has been trending lower for past few hours. This has brought the pair to a 50 day SMA and a daily pin bar. This however is taking place in the middle of the daily chart price range. NZDCAD is trending higher after it was able to hold above the 50 day SMA. However, there is a weekly resistance level at 0.87 area and the pair is approaching the level again. Significant daily support and resistance levels for these pairs are: Main Macro Events Today RBA Policy Meetings Minutes: RBA policy makers were less worried about the currency appreciation in the beginning of August and said that weaker currency was helping exports. The bank deemed it likely that when the US Fed raises the rates the Australian dollar will depreciate in value against the US dollar. UK CPI: The yy UK Consumer Price Index numbers are released today. The previous figure was 0.0 and with energy prices at multi-year lows there are no expectations that inflation would pickup now. Forecast: 0.0. US Housing Starts: July housing starts data should show a 3 decline in the pace of starts to a 1,140k (median 1,180k) pace for the month. Permits are seen at 1,200k from 1,337 in June and completions should be 990k from 972k in June. The NAHB remained firm in July at 60 and todays release showed a further increase to 61 in August. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Janne Muta Chief Market Analyst HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission. Date. 19h August 2015. CURRENCY MOVERS OF 19th August 2015. EURUSD, Daily Yesterdays intraday rally was short lived and EURUSD resumed its downward trend. In the Asian session the pair moved higher and attempted to test resistance at 1.1080. Rally moved the EURUSD spot rate outside a descending 4h price channel. However, the aforementioned resistance is a daily low from 13th while 50 day SMA is coinciding with the level. This combination triggered selling and the last complete 4h candle turned into a shooting star. As mentioned in the previous reports, there are no significant daily support levels before the 1.0934. And because the spot is now close to resistance levels, it makes more sense to look for further downside over the coming days. IMF participation in Greek bailout is indispensable for Germany, according to German Finance Minister Schaeuble. He stressed that the IMF agreed in principle to join the Greek bailout and said he is confident about the IMFs assessment of Greek debt sustainability. Schaeuble, who is trying to sell the package to increasingly reluctant lawmakers from his own party, repeated that a haircut is out of the question and that there is only limited room for further Greek debt relief. So its hard to share his confidence that the IMF will come on board in October. Eurozone officials have been considering soft debt relief in the form of maturity extensions and extended payment holidays, but the IMF previously argued that this is unlikely to be sufficient to reach debt sustainability. Assuring lawmakers that the IMF will get on board, risks that Schaeuble and Merkel will have to declare defeat if there is no agreement with the fund on Greek debt. Chinas economy and a EM debt crisis are now the principal concerns of investors, according to the latest sentiment survey from BoA-Merrill, eclipsing risks of a Eurozone breakdown This comes with emerging market stocks trading at four-year lows and Asian currencies taking a pummeling. Both the Malaysian ringgit and Indonesian rupiah clocked fresh 17-year lows today, since the dark days of the 1998 Asian crisis. China is very much at the center of all this. Stock markets there had another volatile day with the Shanghai Composite showing a 5.1 loss at its intraday low, but managing to close with just a 1.2 decline (its not clear whether official support was behind this, but that seems to be the widespread suspicion). This follows the 6.1 dive of yesterday. Atlanta Feds GDPNow was boosted to 1.3 for Q3 from the previous 0.7 estimate, as the measure catches up to the internals of Fridays industrial production report, though still some distance from the Blue Chip median estimate of 2.7. The GDPNow model forecast for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2015 is 1.3 percent on August 18, up from 0.7 percent on August 13. The forecast for real GDP growth increased from 0.7 percent to 1.2 percent after Fridays industrial production release from the Federal Reserve. Most of this increase was due to a 15.3 percent increase in seasonally adjusted motor vehicle assemblies in July that boosted the forecast of the contribution of real inventory investment to third-quarter GDP growth from -2.2 percentage points to -1.8 percentage points. US housing starts edged up 0.2 in July to a 1,206k pace, the best since October 2007, after rebounding 12.3 to 1,204k in June (revised from 1,174k). But, building permits fell 16.3 to 1,119k, from a revised 7.0 June gain to 1,337k (revised from 1,343k). Single family starts rose 12.8 on the month, with multifamily down 17.0. Housing completions increased 2.4 to 987k from the 964k June rate (revised from 972k). Headline starts are better than forecast, but permits disappointed a bit, to leave a mixed view on the report in general, but in a vacuum would keep a September rate hike on the table. Currency Movers Charts The moves in the FX markets have been rather subdued ahead of FOMC minutes. EUR has been gaining while the USD has been losing ground. We touched upon NZD and milk prices yesterday as there was an expectation that prices of dairy products would rise. Today however, NZD didnt move higher even on the back of the news that dairy prices moved higher. According to agrimoney prices for milk powder rose 19 from two weeks ago, while prices for the anhydrous milk fat soared 27. This is the first time prices have risen on the GDT since early March, and mark a recover from the previous auctions 13-year price low and is likely resulting from a supply squeeze. This suggests that the free falling milk prices might have found a bottom and should support the New Zealand economy. However, the currency markets dont seem believe this story as NZD is down today. Perhaps, the worries about Chinese economy and the Fed rate hike expectations are behind the lack of buying interest. Just recently there has also been some concerted move into the safe haven currency CHF but the changes are still relatively small. Significant daily support and resistance levels for these pairs are: FX Pair Support Resistance GBPUSD 1.5563 1.5806 AUDUSD 0.7216 0.7437 USDCAD 1.2950 1.3152 USDJPY 1.2379 1.2528 NZDUSD 0.6470 0.6650 Main Macro Events Today Japan All Industry Activity Index came in at 0.3 disappointing slightly as expectation was 0.4. However, the improvement from previous figure of -0.5 was welcome. US CPI: July CPI should reveal a 0.1 (median 0.2) increase for the headline with the core index up 0.2 (median 0.2) on the month. After leveling off briefly, oil prices resumed their decline in July which is likely to add downward pressure to the CPI release. This effect showed up in the already released July PPI where we saw a headline increase of 0.2 but which included a 0.6 decline for the energy component in July. FOMC Minutes: Key domestic data have generally been good enough to support liftoff on September 17. Indeed, GDP growth should hit at least 3.0 in Q2 and Q3. However, the FOMC isnt operating in a vacuum and ongoing weakness in commodity prices, the dollars strength, and remaining uncertainties over the outlook for China could tip the scales in favor of a delay, especially given the generally dovish leanings of the voting members, led by Yellen and Dudley. Well look for clues in the FOMC minutes for the degree to which the various parameters might affect the decision. Tomorrows data on July CPI will be of some importance too though it have lost some of its potency given the plunge in commodities. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Janne Muta Chief Market Analyst HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission. Date. 20th August 2015. CURRENCY MOVERS OF 20th August 2015. The FOMC minutes lacked clear signs of September rate hike and triggered a sharp move higher in EURUSD yesterday. The pair moved to upper 1.5 sd Bollinger band and is now trading inside 4h pivotal resistance and relatively close to a weekly resistance level at 1.1189. When price is trading near a higher time frame resistance, such as a weekly level at 1.1189, it is more challenging for the bulls to move prices higher and downward reactions from proximity of the level become more probable. The daily picture is now medium term bullish with the latest low being a (second) higher low and the high before that being a higher high. This suggests that there is now a daily uptrend in place and we should see EURUSD moving higher into the weekly resistance area over the coming weeks but longs should be timed at corrections. In the short term, the nearby resistance area could be a challenge for the bulls and we should keep an eye on how price reacts to the resistance levels. The nearest significant support and resistance levels are at 1.1015 and 1.1189. ESM rubberstamped the Greek bailout late yesterday, following the ratification in national parliaments this week and last Fridays approval by the Eurogroup. The ESM said EUR 13 bn will be paid out immediately and a EUR 10 bn bank buffer transferred to a segregated account at the ESM. EUR 3 bn are to be disbursed by the end of November, after further prior action from Greece. The ESM said the privatisation fund is to be established this year with a total targeted value of EUR 50 bn of assets to be sold. Debt relief for Greece in the form of longer grace and payments periods, will be considered after the first review in OctoberNovember and the IMF is expected to contribute after European creditors adopt debt relief measures. Whether this form of soft debt relief will be sufficient to satisfy the fund remains the key question for IMF participation. German producer prices continue to fall, with annual PPI inflation coming in at -1.3 yy in July, up from -1.4 yy in June, but still firmly in negative territory. The renewed decline in energy prices is keeping a lid on import prices and overall PPI, while this years drop in the EUR is taking its time to feed through the product chain. Still headline rates are inching up from the lows seen at the start of the year and excluding energy the rate stood at -0.2 yy in July. There never really was a great risk of a real deflationary spiral in Germany and with a tight labour market adding to wage gains and a rise in unit labour costs, while fueling consumption, inflation is seen trending higher over the next year. FOMC minutes showed a leaning toward a hike, with most officials seeing conditions for liftoff approaching (minutes were leaked early). However, as of July, those conditions still hadnt been met. And the recent events from China make September a difficult call. While participants cheered the improvement in the economy since the weak Q1, validating their forecasts, a few were disappointed that growth was still lower than had been projected earlier in the year. On inflation, its still expected to pick up, although some saw downside risks due to economic and financial developments abroad. The remarks on China were a little more expansive than usual. It said several participants noted that a material slowdown in Chinese economic activity could pose risks to the U. S. economic outlook. Some participants also discussed the risk that a possible divergence in interest rates in the United States and abroad might lead to further appreciation of the dollar, extending the downward pressure on commodity prices and the weakness in net exports. Also of note, the Fed staff revised its inflation outlook down and price pressures are expected to remain below the 2 target through 2017. Currency Movers Charts EUR has been strong today across the board while AUD has been losing ground especially against EUR. EURAUD has been trending higher over the past few weeks and the latest move EURUSD encouraged buyers in to take EURAUD to the recent highs at 1.53. EURCAD is another strongly trending pair moving towards a resistance at 1.4733. Since March this year, EUR has been moving higher against the CAD on the back of oil prices staying weak. Significant daily support and resistance levels for these pairs are: Main Macro Events Today US Philadelphia Fed Index: The August Philly Fed is out Thursday and is expected to decline to 4.0 (median 6.5) from 5.7 in July. The already released Empire State index plunged in August, dropping to -14.9 from 3.9 in July with the ISM-adjusted measure falling to 44.9 from 50.0. This drop set a low back to 2009 and will be a source of downside risk for the remaining August producer sentiment reports. US Initial Jobless Claims: Claims data for the week of August 15 is out Thursday and the headline is expected to fall to 266k (median 270k) from 274k last week and 269k in the week prior to that. Claims are poised to average 274k in August after a lean 272k in July. US Existing Home Sales: July existing home sales data is out Thursday and should show a 1.6 slowdown in the headline pace to 5.400 million (median 5.440 million) from 5.490 million in June. The June headline set a new high back to 09. Already released measures of housing strength for July have remained firm with the NAHB rising to 60 from 59 and housing starts up to 1.206 million from 1.204 million in June. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Janne Muta Chief Market Analyst HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission. Date. 21st August 2015. CURRENCY MOVERS OF 21st August 2015. Euro has been a funding currency for carry trades. Market participants have been borrowing in euros at near zero rates and investing in better yielding Asian economies where the rates are higher. Lately however carry traders (in short Euro positions) have been forced to unwind these investments as euro has been trending higher. The latest rally moved EURUSD far outside the upper Bollinger bands. This rally ran into a resistance at 1.1292, a daily low from June 19th. A move outside daily Bollinger bands and close to a resistance is likely to be reversed and price needs to move lower to find support levels from which to attempt to move higher again. The nearest support area is at 1.1189 -1.1216 but this area is rather high up in the range of the recent uptrend. If the recent momentum continues the this area can provide a level for a new reaction low but should that be violated a more reliable support area for EURUSD is closer to a weekly high of 1.0966 at 1.1018 1.1094. In terms of weekly picture and sideways movement weve seen since May this year the pair is getting a bit pricey. This limits the upside potential and should trigger a more careful approach to trading the long side. On the fundamental side Feds lack of commitment to raising rates (evident in the latest FOMC minutes) and Chinese slowdown together with increased volatility in emerging markets raises the possibility that EURUSD will keep on appreciating. The CBOE Emerging Markets ETF Volatility Index has risen from July 17th low of 17.59 to 28.56 at the time of writing, a rise of 62.36. All this increases the likelihood that the Fed will start paying attention to the risk of adding more instability to these markets by increasing the rates. However, from a technical point of view, a resistance is a resistance until it has been penetrated. Therefore signs of reversal near weekly highs should be taken seriously and traded appropriately. Major weekly support area will be found between 1.0809 and 1.0996. Greek elections to bring stability or more chaos Tsipras decision to resign to pave the way for snap elections was not a total surprise, given the unraveling of Syriza amid the controversy over Greeces 3rd bailout. It is not clear yet when elections will be held, but a September 20 date, as an official yesterday suggested, would be ahead of the 1st bailout review and debt relief talks which raise some risks. Tsipras may be hoping that the vote will bolster his eroding power base and Eurogroup head Dijsselbloem said he hoped the elections will bring more stability and will come early. However, the reforms will hardly bring any real improvement in the short term and could still see anti-austerity forces gaining strength, which has the potential to throw Greece back to where it was earlier in the year, if a new left government doesnt want to see through the agreed reforms. German consumers start to worry about growth outlook. The overall projection for consumer confidence in September came in weaker than expected at 9.9, down from 10.1 in August. The August breakdown showed a fresh drop in the reading for the economic outlook to just 16.6 less than half the 38.3 at the peak back in May. Income expectations are also coming off the boil and the willingness to buy is easing, which suggests the strong boost from consumption that has been helping the German economy to recover this year may taper off. This will add to concerns about the impact of the slowdown in China on the German economy. The July US existing home sales rose 2.0 to a 5.59 mln new cycle-high clip extended the June surge to a 5.48 (was 5.49) mln prior cycle-high to leave an encouraging report overall. We now have cyclical gains of 62 for existing home sales and 44 for pending home sales, versus larger cyclical gains of 79 for new home sales, 152 for housing starts, and 118 for permits. More generally, the housing recovery lost steam after the Feds taper talk and mortgage rate gains of mid-2013, and sales are just 5.3 above the 5.31 mln prior recent-peak in July of 2013 as we approach the presumed start of Fed tightening. Existing home sales fell 3.0 for 2014 overall to a 4.92 mln rate despite the underlying recovery, and we expect an 8 2015 climb that brings us back to the mid-2013 sales pace. The percentage of all-cash transactions rose to 23 from 22 in June but a higher 24 over the prior three months, versus a much higher 29 last July. The downtrend is a good sign for ongoing repair in the mortgage market. Currency Movers Charts AUD is down again against all the major competitors while a safe haven currency JPY is benefiting from uncertainty that is clearly visible in the global stock markets. SampP 500 ended down over 2 yesterday while German DAX hadnt a single issue that rose yesterday. Today Shanghai Composite closed down by 4.7 while euro has been benefiting from carry trade unwinds. All this points to more unstable times ahead and is in line with my predictions on global stock markets May this year (tweet: Bull market for stocks is over). This should also translate into added volatility in the currency markets and provide traders with new opportunities. Todays moves have driven AUDCHF and AUDJPY at support areas created by the lower daily Bollinger bands while EURAUD is trading near a pivotal weekly high from October last year. Significant daily support and resistance levels for these pairs are: Main Macro Events Today Chinas manufacturing PMI fell to a preliminary 47.1 in August from a final 47.8 in July. The decline was contrary to expectations for some modest improvement and left the lowest reading since March of 2009. The report suggests the weakness evident in Chinas economy during July continued in August, ultimately exacerbating the China slowdown fears the have roiled global markets last week and this week. Eurozone PMIs stabilise in August, with the manufacturing reading holding steady at 52.4 and the services number rising to 54.3. Better than Bloomberg consensus, with strong German orders data helping to boost the German manufacturing PMI, which compensated for another drop in the French reading. Canada Retail Sales: We expect retail sales to rise 0.1 in June (median 0.3) after the 1.0 bounce in May. The ex-autos sales aggregate is expected to rise 0.5 in June (median 0.5) following the 0.9 gain in May. Gasoline prices rose 6.0 in June according to the CPI, which should boost total and ex-auto sales. We could see a sizable boost, suggesting upside risk to the total and ex-autos sales estimates. Canada CPI should expand at a 1.4 yy pace in July (median same at 1.4) following the 1.0 yy rate in June. CPI is seen rising 0.1 on a month comparable basis in June (median 0.2) after the 0.2 gain in June. Gas prices were essentially flat in July compared to June. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Janne Muta Chief Market Analyst HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission. Date. 24th August 2015. CURRENCY MOVERS OF 21th August 2015. The risk-off theme continues in global financial markets as traders re-price the USD in view of the reduced chance that the Fed will begin tightening rates in September. The EURUSD is now trading near multi month highs around 1.15 after accelerating through my 1.1260s target area see my August 14 report, current price is starting to look overbought ahead of the 1.1530 resistance level. EURUSD traders should watch if price can hold above the 1.1436 support level before initiating new longs, otherwise a break below the 1.1430s could open up the possibility for a set-back towards the 1.1216 1.1189 levels ahead of an advance on the 1.16s. German property prices continue to rise, with prices for apartments rising by around 1.4 mm. The overall index rose 0.73 mm and up 5.3 yy. Low interest rates and a robust labour market are driving up property prices, but while the Bundesbank is keeping a close eye on developments it is not seeing signs of a serious property bubble at the moment, even if prices in key cities are already overvalued. Asian and emerging market currencies are under pressure, along with commodity related currencies such as the AUD and the CAD as the FOMC minutes showed a Committee divided, the minutes gave no clear signals on the timing of a rate liftoff, however the mention of risks from China, the growthinflation impacts of a stronger dollar, and a downgraded inflation outlook from the Fed Staff resulted in a downbeat market interpretation. China will remain a focal point as Chinese officials struggle with a slowing economy and falling equity market. Currency Pairs, Grouped Performance ( change) Current 5 day percentage change of currencies against other major currencies since the daily close 23:59:59 server time, 5 days ago. The AUD is trading lower as the spill-over from the turmoil in Chinas stock markets remain a risk factor for the AUD. The JPY is trading higher as talk of further easing to stimulate growth continues to gain momentum. The EUR over the last five trading days is stronger as the current sell off in the Chinese stock markets and weak commodity prices may have the market rethinking a US rate move in September. Significant daily support and resistance levels for these pairs are: Main Macro Events Today USD FOMC Member Lockhart Speaks: Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta President Dennis Lockhart is due to speak today. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. John Knobel Senior Currency Strategist HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission. Date. 25th August 2015. CURRENCY MOVERS OF 25th August 2015. The EUR is trading lower this Tuesday after a nearly 340 pip move with the main cause pointing to Chinese retail investors realization that their government is no longer willing to support the Chinese stock markets. Mondays aggressive global stock market sell-off was amplified by a number of brewing factors, the devaluation of the Yuan, the collapse of commodity prices, and the uncertainty of when Central banks will start to tighten rates. At the moment, the EURUSD is at risk of a retracement of the 1.1020-1.17 sharp multi up-day move. However, the EURUSD saw serval breaks of resistance that could lead to further positive upward momentum on price. Traders should now be on alert if the former 1.1530 resistance now turned support can hold before initiating new longs, otherwise a possibility dip towards the mid 1.13s could see buyers remerge to support price for a potential next leg higher move above the 1.1750s. The German DAX remains clearly below the 10000 mark and Asian markets were volatile in overnight trade, with the ASX closing higher, but the Nikkei losing nearly 4 again. Crude Oil touched 37.70 after making it to 39s following its entry into to the 37s. The slide lower comes as traders fear that global stock markets may pick up downward momentum again the price fall indicates that traders view that global demand for the commodity will weaken as the Chinese economic slowdown takes hold. The White House said the Treasury is closely monitoring global markets and China should continue to pursue reforms, while touting the strength of the U. S. economy. However, it did warn that Congress needs to pass the budget and avoid shutdowns to avoid self-inflicted wounds. Merkel of Germany said that a crisis in China wont last and it will do everything it can to stabilize the situation, while Hollande of France said China will find the right answers to secure its economy. Currency Pairs, Grouped Performance ( change) Current intraday percentage change of currencies against other major currencies since the daily close 23:59:59 server time. The JPY is lower against the majors after the JPY showed strong gains as a safe haven currency during yesterdays volatile trading session. The USDJPY bounced nearly 300 points from the lows, as Wall Street pares its losses USDJPY touched 119.02 highs after collapsing from over 120.00 to nearly 2015 lows of 116.15. The AUD is trading higher as commodity prices will continue to dictate the level of the AUD. The EUR is trading mixed after the German Ifo index rose to 108.3 in August from 108.0 in July. Significant daily support and resistance levels for these pairs are: Main Macro Events Today EUR German IFO Index: Rose to 108.3 in August from 108.0 in July. This was even stronger than consensus forecast, with markets looking for a correction, although the rebound in German PMIs and strong orders already suggested that the Ifo would hold up. The breakdown confirmed that the improvement was entirely due to a jump in the current conditions indicator, while the more forward looking expectations index fell back slightly to 102.2 from 102.3 in July. The deteriorating growth outlook in China and other emerging markets may not have had an immediate impact on this months reading, but will be felt in coming month. Bund futures extended losses on the stronger than expected number, with the September contract now down 90 ticks on the day. USD Consumer Confidence: August Consumer Confidence is expected to increase to 92.0 from 90.9. This compares to a recent low of 25.3 in February of 2009. Forecast risk: downward, given the decline in the first Michigan release. Market risk: downward, as weaker data could impact rate hike timelines. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. John Knobel Senior Currency Strategist HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission. Date. 26th August 2015. CURRENCY MOVERS OF 26th August 2015. The hope for a rebound in European stock markets didnt last long, and equities are selling off again, with the DAX down at the market opening and below the 10000 mark. Chinas rate cut yesterday by the Peoples Bank of China initiated a rebound in Asian equity markets. It seems the realization in Europe is that the underlying problem is due to the fact that emerging markets are slowing down. The Euro Stoxx 600 has dropped 12 in August so far, and is heading for the worst monthly drop since 2008. The medium term view on the EURUSD, since price has traded through the May tops at the 1.1430s and then back under to touch below the 1.14 support on Tuesday, indicates that price still remains at risk of a continued retracement. The risk for longs is a re-visit towards the former major resistance 1.12 area where traders should watch for a potential higher low to develop before any attempt to retest the 1.17 recent high. The USD gets some support as the U. S. consumer confidence rose sharply to 101.5 in August after climbing to 91.0 in June (revised from 90.9). It was 90.3 a year ago. This is the best level since March. The USD is trading mostly higher against the JPY, GBP, AUD and CHF, ahead of todays Core Durable Goods Orders data. Currency Pairs, Grouped Performance ( change) Current intraday percentage change of currencies against other major currencies since the daily close 23:59:59 server time. The JPY is weakening across the board as regional stocks rose. The CAD is stronger against all majors as Crude prices firm up. Significant daily support and resistance levels for these pairs are: Main Macro Events Today USD Durable Goods Orders: July durable goods data is out today and should show orders up 1.0 (median -0.5) following a 3.4 bounce in June. Markets expect shipments to be up 1.5 from 0.5 in June and inventories to be up 0.6, the same pace as June. Data in line with this forecast would leave the IS ratio down to 1.66 after two months at 1.68. There is some downside risk as Boeing orders fell to 101 in July from 181 in June. USD FOMC Member Dudley Speaks: Dudley is the President of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. John Knobel Senior Currency Strategist HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission. Date. 27th August 2015. CURRENCY MOVERS OF 27th August 2015. The EUR is trading generally weaker after posting broad based declines yesterday, as lower energy prices has led to a 1.7 decline in German import price inflation. The current lower inflation trajectory will give the ECB an excuse to talk down the euro speculators should not rule out any further ECB QE expansion in the wake of the recent global market turmoil. I continue to see EURUSD risk to the downside in the immediate short term as price may attempt to re-test the mid to low 1.12s where buyers could potentially emerge to support the pair. European stock markets are broadly higher, following gains on Wall Street and in Asia, with the Shanghai Comp managing to extend gains in late trade closing with a 5.34 gain. The Nikkei closed 1.08 higher and the Hang Seng is up nearly 3. In Europe, most markets are up around 2, with the DAX leading the way with a 2.34 gain the FTSE 100 is up 2.07 and the Euro Stoxx 2.20. Downbeat central bank comments are adding to market support with rate hike expectations in the U. S. and the U. K. being pushed back and the increased possibility that the ECB will move further into QE. Volatility is likely to remain high in this climate of uncertainty about the world growth outlook. Dovish Fed speaking from Dudley, who said a September rate hike seems less compelling to me than a few weeks ago, had an impact on the markets with the Dow Jones closing up nearly 3.95 in Wednesday trade. Currency Pairs, Grouped Performance ( change) Current intraday percentage change of currencies against other major currencies since the daily close 23:59:59 server time. The JPY continues to trade weaker across the board as the USDJPY bounces off the recent 1.1616 monthly low to break through to the upside of the 120s. The commodity driven currencies AUD, CAD and NZD, are all trading stronger as Copper, Gold and Crude Oil firm up. The GBP remains mixed as cable traders digest the previous sessions sharp sell off of the GBPUSD. Significant daily support and resistance levels for these pairs are: Main Macro Events Today USD Gross Domestic Price Index (Q2): The second release on Q2 GDP is out today and we expect the headline to be revised up to 3.5 (median 3.3) from 2.3 in the first release. Construction spending and inventories are expected to lead the revisions. We expect construction spending to be revised up by 17 bln, inventories by 16 bln, consumption by 11 bln and net exports and equipment spending should both be revised up by 2 bln. USD Initial Jobless Claims: Claims data for the week of August 22nd are out later today and should reveal a decline in the headline to 274k (median 275k) after an increase to 277k in the August 15th week. Claims are continuing at restrained levels in August and we expect the average for the month to be 274k which compares to 272k in July and 277k in June. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. John Knobel Senior Currency Strategist HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission. Date. 28th August 2015. CURRENCY MOVERS OF 28th August 2015. The EURUSD hit a low near the key 1.12 support level on Thursday. I previously posted I continue to see EURUSD risk to the downside in the immediate short term as price may attempt to re-test the mid to low 1.12s where buyers could potentially emerge to support the pair. This I posted when the EURUSD was trading around 1.1311. At the moment, the euro is likely to continue its bounce off the key support as buyers emerged to support price. The risk for short sellers is that the latest bounce could extend out towards the 1.14s 15s. However, traders should be on alert for any price drop below the 1.12s as this move may raise fears for a return towards the low 1.11s to mid 1.1150s. The rebound on stock markets continued in Asia, with the Shanghai Comp up 1.77 and Japanese markets outperforming. The USD managed to firm up in the wake of renewed optimism about the U. S. economy following yesterdays revised Q2 GDP, which also helped the U. S. Dow Jones to close up 2.30 on Thursday. Today, the Eurozone stock markets are broadly lower, with Eurozone markets underperforming and the DAX down around 8 for the month. The markets are now hoping that stimulus from central banks may have helped to limit the sell off. Uncertainty about growth and central bank outlooks is adding to market volatility and means the impact of stronger than expected data is unclear. Currency Pairs, Grouped Performance ( change) Current intraday percentage change of currencies against other major currencies since the daily close 23:59:59 server time. The AUD is weaker across the board as commodity prices will continue to dictate the level of the AUD. Also, the unrest in Chinas stock markets remains the major risk factor for the AUD. The GBP trades lower after a bout of sterling buying in the wake of UK Q2 GDP data, which was unrevised at 0.7 qq. Significant daily support and resistance levels for these pairs are: Main Macro Events Today GBP UK Q2 GDP:: UK GDP was left unrevised at 0.7 qq and 2.6 yy in second-estimate data, matching expectations. Growth in 2014 was also left unrevised, at 3.0. The breakdown showed a 3.7 qq rise in exports versus just a 0.6 qq increase in imports, while consumer spending eased to 0.7 qq. Encouragingly, business expenditure rose 2.9 qq, the biggest rise in 12 months, and by 5.0 yy. USD Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (Aug): The second release on Michigan Sentiment is out Today and we expect the headline to be revised up to 93.5 (median 94.0) after a 92.9 headline in the first release that marked a decline from 93.1 in July. The tendency over the past year has been for upward revisions and consumer confidence for the month spiked higher, rising to 101.5 from 91.0 in July. These two factors should lend upside risk to the release. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. John Knobel Senior Currency Strategist HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission. Date. 31st August 2015. CURRENCY MOVERS OF 31st August 2015. Asian stock markets closed lower again in overnight trade, led by a 1.28 decline in the Nikkei 225, as the Chinese stock markets backed off following a Beijing announcement that large-scale purchases to support the market are not to be expected in the future. This weighed on regional equities, Asian and commodity currencies. At the time of writing, U. S. stock futures are down -125 points, setting the stage for a renewed decline in European stock markets. Eurozone August inflation data is out later today and it should show a renewed drop in the headline rate closer towards zero in the wake of lower commodity prices, EUR traders will look for further ECB rate clues in language during the press conference on Thursday after the Minimum Bid Rate decision. Traders should also take note that ECB Vice President Constancio said at the Jackson Hole symposium that current inflation forecasts dont price in recent declines in oil prices. This backs expectations for a downward revision to the central banks inflation forecasts at Thursdays council meeting. The technical outlook for the EURUSD over the short term is that price is bouncing off the 1.12s key support level with price potential limited to the upside between the 1.1460 1.1530s. Price looks to be trading at the lower end of the short term upward price channel, and as long as the key 1.12s hold firm the longs should maintain control over the immediate short term. Short sellers may present themselves on a break below the 1.12s with support levels seen near the low 1.11s 1.1150s. Traders should pay some attention to the recent statements by Central Bank centers of influence members since a large part of the recent market volatility revolves around the uncertainty of the timing of rate adjustments. The U. S. Fed vice chairman Fischer saying over the weekend that there is good reason to believe that inflation will move higher as the forces holding down inflation dissipate further, while BoE Governor Carney said that China uncertainty was unlikely to change UK monetary policy. On Friday, Atlanta Fed moderate Lockhart said hes less resolute on a September hike in wake of market volatility, according to a Market News report. Market turmoil may change the thinking on policy, he said, though the economy is in quite solid mode of expansion. Currency Pairs, Grouped Performance ( change) Current 5-day percentage change of currencies against other major currencies since the daily close 23:59:59 server time, 5 days ago. The JPY is weaker across the board as the Japan CPI rose 0.2 yy in July slowing from 0.4 in June. The AUD traded generally stronger as construction work done in Australia climbed 1.6 qq for Q2 2015. The CAD is firmer after the CAD PPI in July inched up 0.1 yy, after it had fallen 0.9 in June. Significant daily support and resistance levels for these pairs are: Main Macro Events Today EUR Consumer Price Index: EMU August CPI is expected to fall to 0.1 (median same) from 0.2, this is mainly the result of lower oil prices. Sharply lower oil prices mean the inflation trajectory will likely look flatter than previously and at the same time the risks to growth have increased. Still, core inflation is actually trending higher, money supply growth is accelerating and loan growth stabilising. In this situation, the ECB will use low inflation to give markets some dovish sound-bites at Thursdays central bank meeting and stress that the door to further measures remains open, without committing to further easing. USD Chicago Purchasing Managers Index: The Chicago PMI continues the August producer sentiment releases later today and should reveal a headline improvement to 55.0 (median 54.9) from 54.7. Producer sentiment measures have been mixed so far in August and we expect the months ISM-adjusted average to decline to 52 after holding at 53 in both June and July. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. John Knobel Senior Currency Strategist HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission. Date. 1st September 2015. CURRENCY MOVERS OF 1st September 2015. The global stock market selloff continued in overnight trade in Asia, with the Nikkei dropping off another 3.84. The USD traded mostly weaker oil prices have fallen back off the recent high price near 54.3, and now trades just below 53 after rallying strongly over the three previous sessions. The USD weakness may be linked to the new declines in Chinese and global stock markets, this global selloff have investors and traders rethinking the timing of when the U. S. Fed will tighten rates. This uncertainty regarding the timing of a U. S. rate hike is fueling the current downward pressure on the USD. The markets will remain volatile until we see clearer signs from the U. S. Fed. The technical outlook for the EURUSD over the immediate short term remains to be contained within the Aug 7th Aug 12th upward slopping price channel. Now that the price has clearly bounced off the 1.12s key, support current price potential is set to test the upside between the 1.1460 1.1530s. However, any break below 1.12 could open up a 1.11 target. A hypothetical trade set up could be to resell near the 1.1460s 1.1530s for a 1.11 target. German jobless numbers fell 7K in August, slightly more than expected and leaving the seasonally adjusted jobless rate steady at a low 6.4. Official numbers still look good, but the improvement on the labour market is leveling off as the market is increasingly tight. The Reserve Bank of Australia left its cash rate at 2.0, as widely expected and ignoring recent market turmoil in Chinese stock markets. The AUD is seen as adjusting to the significant declines in key commodity prices and further depreciation seems likely however, the RBA is now cautious about adjusting rates lower because of the strong Australian property market. Currency Pairs, Grouped Performance ( change) Current intraday percentage change of currencies against other major currencies since the daily close 23:59:59 server time. The USD is softer across the board as declines in Chinese and global stock markets and the associated risk-off sentiment have served to erode Fed tightening expectations, which weighed on the USD. The AUD is weaker post-RBA statement gains amid a backdrop of declining Asian and global stock markets. The EUR and the GBP are mostly trading mixed as the EU commission maintains a 1.5 growth forecast, and UK manufacturing PMI survey disappointed. Significant daily support and resistance levels for these pairs are: Main Macro Events Today EUR Manufacturing PMI: August manufacturing PMI revised down to 52.3 from 52.4 reported initially, which means the overall reading fell slightly from the 52.4 reported for July, despite the sharp jump in the German reading. Confidence indicators overall still held up in August, but the downward revision ties in with contraction in China and is likely to herald further weakness in coming months as demand falls off with slowing growth in emerging markets and uncertainty about the outlook for the global economy. GBP Manufacturing PMI: The UK manufacturing PMI survey disappointed at 51.5 in August, down from Julys 51.9 reading and below the median forecast for 52.0. The August dip brings the PMI indicator to within a whisker of Junes two-year low of 51.4. The strong trade-weighted value of sterling has been curtailing the export-sensitive sector. CAD Gross Domestic Product: GDP is seen falling 1.0 in Q2 (qq,) after the 0.6 drop in Q1. But the expected 0.2 gain in June GDP would end a five month run of monthly GDP declines and support Bank expectations that the economy will recover in 2H. USD ISM Manufacturing PMI: August ISM will be released later today and should reveal a headline decline to 52.5 (median 52.7) from 52.7 in July. Other measures of producer sentiment have been volatile for the month with big drops in the Empire State, and Richmond and Dallas Feds. The Philly Fed did manage to climb higher to 8.3 from 5.7 last month. Despite this the balance of risk for tomorrows release is to the downside and we expect the broader ISM-adjusted average for the month to fall to 52 after holding at 53 in both July and June. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. John Knobel Senior Currency Strategist HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.